Competing Iowa poll results / Overdose deaths among Blacks, Native Americans / Cannabis legalization / Election night expectations

Two Iowa poll results give the state to Harris, Trump

One political poll says Harris will win Iowa for president 47 percent to Trump’s 44. Another says Trump is likely to take Iowa, 44 percent to 34 for Harris. What gives, and why does it matter?

• It’s the Selzer poll that shocked the political world over the weekend with data showing Harris is likely to win the state’s electoral college votes. Pollster Ann Selzer is known for, among other things, accurately predicting Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Cinton in the state’s 2008 Democratic presidential caucuses.

 

 

• The Emerson College Poll, by contrast, is calling Iowa 44-34 for Trump thus far.

• How are these two polls different, or the same? Here’s just a peek: Both polled about the same number of Iowans (Selzer polled 808 Iowans, and Emerson polled 800). Selzer’s poll took place Oct. 28-31; Emerson’s poll happened Nov. 1-2.

• Iowa is significant not because of its six electoral college votes, but because its generally attentive and active electorate and sizable independent voter bloc is considered a “bellwether” for similar voters nationwide.

• In related Harris/Trump news: Harris’s surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live melted the hearts of supporters, but also led to NBC providing Donald Trump equivalent on-air time the next day. NBC filed a notice of “equal time” required under national election laws, after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) leader noted on social media that Harris’s SNL appearance may have violated the FCC’s equal time requirement

Millions of people have yet to vote on Election Day

Despite a big year of early voting thus far, with more than 79 million already casting their ballots as of Monday, almost half of the country’s likely voters will cast their ballots on Election Day.

• Altogether, more than 220 million Americans are registered to vote, and about 160 million of them (66 percent)  are expected to participate in the election.

• This year’s early vote totals will not surpass 2020’s total of 120 million but will surpass 2012’s total of about 46 million and 2016’s early vote total of about 58 million.

 

What to expect Election Night: Trump will appear to lead early on

Only after early voting ballots are counted in battle ground states including Pennsylvania will the winner be fully known. That is likely to be one to five days after Election Day, reports CBS News.

• The earliest polls to close, at around 7 p.m. CST, are red states. blue California with is 79 electoral votes certain to go to Harris will close at around 10 p.m.  CST. It’s unlikely all categories of voting — early voting, absentee/by mail and in-person — will be fully counted by the time Tuesday ends.

• A call on who has won the election is not anticipated until days later. Key “battleground” states to watch — those too close to call — include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

• CNN.com offers an hour-by-hour walk-through here of which states close their polls when, with how many electoral votes, and which way they lean.

Democrat-controlled U.S. Senate, Republican-controlled House may switch Tuesday

One Congressional race in Illinois, and two in Iowa, may help determine whether the federal House and Senate trade off partisan dominance.

• The U.S. Senate, currently 51-49 in favor of Democrats, is largely expected to flip over to Republicans.

• A key race to watch involves Quad Cities native and notoriously pro-Trump Republican Kari Lake, facing off against Democratic Ruben Gallegos in Arizona.

 

 

• The House, or Congress, may possibly go to Democratic control after just two years of 220-212 Republican dominance. One race to watch: Eric Sorensen (D) versus Joe McGraw (R) in the 17th Congressional District that includes the Quad Cities to Rockford.

• Two other Congressional races to watch: Democrat Christine Bohannon strives to unseat Republican incumbent Marianne Miller-Meeks in eastern Iowa, and Lalon Baccam challenges Republican Zach Nunn in central Iowa.

Cannabis legalization on ballot in four states

Of the four states where citizens will vote on cannabis legalization, three are near Iowa.

• South Dakota and North Dakota, both of which already allow medical marijuana, will vote whether to allow recreational  cannabis.

• Nebraska, to Iowa’s southwest, will vote whether to allow medical marijuana.

• Florida is the fourth state where marijuana is on the ballot, with a constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana.

Overdose rates rising among Blacks, Native Americans despite dropping among whites

Blacks and Native Americans experienced a spike in overdose deaths during the same years that overdose deaths among whites dropped significantly, says a new study by Stateline.org.

• Almost 5,000 more people of color died from overdoses in 2023 than in 2021. During the same time period, deaths among whites dropped by 6,000.

• The overall death rate for whites dropped below 25.9, while the rate for Blacks rose to almost 50 out of 100,000, and the rate for Native Americans rose to almost 40 per 100,000.

• Experts say People of Color in general have less access to substance use treatment than white people.

• Among Blacks, men over 55 are hardest hit by drug overdose deaths, largely because of economic hardship and lack of safety nets during the pandemic.

• Native American deaths are likely undercounted because Native Americans are more often misidentified on death certificates.

• Overdose death rates are also increasing among Hispanics and Asians, though not as steeply.